The Empire is Losing Control - Consequences

Introduction

Some considered the assessment in our article “Attack on Iran – the Defining Turning Point of 21st Century History” to be an exaggeration; however, it appears we were quite correct: The greatest geopolitical blunder of the 21st century so far—the latest in a series of misguided decisions—will redraw the map of the Middle East. The parties that will dominate decision-making in the future at one of the world’s most important energy and transportation hubs will be other than those we know today. A turning point in world history—one unthinkable to the West—is beginning.

In this article, I reflect on the consequences of this senseless attack. It does indeed appear that the very existence of Israel as a Zionist project—and thus as a state in its current form—is now up for debate. Furthermore, we currently see no path that will allow the US to maintain its power in the Middle East. Its military infrastructure depends on Gulf states, which see their existence threatened by their proximity to the US. They have realized that the US cannot protect them—indeed, does not even want to—while the Iranians are very much capable of destroying them. Europe is now realizing that it is merely a footnote in geopolitics and risks becoming the world’s poorhouse. We can safely set aside the outcry from Merz & Co. in this article. Ms. von der Leyen will go down in history as the destroyer of the EU. One of the Americans’ goals was to destroy China’s energy sector, for after Venezuela, they wanted to bring a second major energy supplier of the Middle Kingdom under their control. Another inconvenient truth will emerge. Russia is becoming richer and more powerful as a result of this failed US adventure. Will the US suffer the same fate in the Middle East as the Ottomans once did?

However, the Trump administration appears to have achieved one goal: new revelations about Epstein—which have the potential to bring Trump down—are being drowned out by the clamor of war—at least for now.

The Iranian People Stand with Their Government

If one looks behind the curtain of Western propaganda, one finds a picture that could not be more alarming for Israelis and Americans. While the attacks on Iran continue, costing the lives of thousands of civilians, the Iranian people show not the slightest sign of giving up or turning against their own government.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told reporters on Friday that the Iranian leadership had “gone underground and gone into hiding,” adding, “That’s what rats do.” In doing so, Hegseth is using the same vocabulary as the Nazis, who referred to Jews as rats—a testament to this man’s level of education.

On the same day, high-ranking Iranian officials, including the president, the head of security, and the foreign minister, took part in the Quds Day rally in Tehran, as shown in videos of the protests. The officials marched despite the risk of Israeli and American attacks, which have killed dozens of high-ranking figures—including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei—since the war against Iran began on February 28. President Masoud Pezeshkian, security chief Ali Larijani, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were among the demonstrators. The head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, was also seen in images and video footage broadcast by state television. He was being interviewed when explosions were heard.

This mandate from the people naturally has an impact on the Iranian leadership. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks with such confidence and composure that he is sure to leave a lasting mark in the history books.

Araghchi earned a bachelor’s degree in international relations from the School of International Relations, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He then earned a master’s degree in political science from Islamic Azad University in Tehran. Araghchi also earned a Ph.D. in political thought from the University of Kent with a dissertation titled The Evolution of the Concept of Political Participation in Twentieth-Century Islamic Political Thought (1996).

With his international education, this man does not fit at all into the image the West paints of the Iranian government. While he gives interviews to American television networks with confidence and poise, people like Hegseth or Rubio—who rose to their positions without the necessary education—rely primarily on hatred and arrogance in their public appearances.

Note that Araghchi is not afraid of his own people. He stands in the middle of the street, and people greet him warmly.

Is Netanyahu Dead?

Social media is abuzz with speculation about Netanyahu’s fate, fueled by posts that the Israeli government initially uploaded to the internet only to remove them shortly thereafter. A video clip showing Netanyahu with six fingers and other inconsistencies typical of AI-manipulated fake videos only adds fuel to the fire.

At a meeting of Israel’s Security Cabinet—a domain under the purview of the Israeli prime minister—the prime minister himself, Israeli Air Force Commander Tomer Bar, Mossad Director David Barnea, and National Security Minister Ben Gvir were all absent without any public explanation. Such a lack of transparency in dealing with the media during wartime leaves plenty of room for all kinds of speculation.

In the US, Scott Bessent was unexpectedly—and, by American standards, quite unusually—summoned by the president from an interview with Sky News to the Situation Room. When he returned two hours later (!!), he was so shaken that he could barely speak.

The coming days will reveal whether Netanyahu is indeed dead. It would be an irony of history if the Israelis, who launched their attack by assassinating Khamenei, were now to suffer the same fate—with the difference that the Iranians did not allow themselves to be rattled by these actions.

Military Situation

American losses are mounting. On Friday, a tanker plane was shot down over Iraq, and five more tanker planes have since been destroyed or damaged in Saudi Arabia, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Reports that the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was severely damaged in an attack and had to return home remain unconfirmed. The US naturally denies this, because if Iran were to succeed in actually sinking an aircraft carrier—or even just damaging one—it would destroy the entire aura of American military superiority, with potential consequences of escalation that would be impossible to predict given the psychopathic characters in Washington.

The Iranian attacks on Tel Aviv continue unabated. Israel’s defenses seem to be becoming increasingly ineffective. Here is footage of a Khorramshahr missile striking Tel Aviv. It carries a 1,800-kg warhead. The attacks are intensifying, with fewer but more modern and effective weapons being used.

Only the Iranians decide who is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Russian, Chinese, and Pakistani ships are permitted to pass, and it appears that India may be able to reach an agreement with Iran. This is surprising, given that India sided with Israel even before the conflict began, thereby opposing Iran—another BRICS member—as a founding member of BRICS; see my comments from March 8.

Americans are up in arms over this development, because if this situation persists—and there are no signs that it will change—the price of oil, which has already jumped 40% since the start of the war, from $73 to $103, will skyrocket. Figures ranging from $150 to $300 are being bandied about. According to Irina Slav, Oilprice.com, this is a realistic possibility if oil production in the Gulf states is disrupted (20 million barrels per day). That could cause the global economy to collapse. A scenario that is becoming increasingly likely.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth approved a request from U.S. Central Command to deploy units from an amphibious ready group and the associated Marine Expeditionary Unit—typically several warships carrying about 5,000 Marines and sailors. Where these ships might land is a complete mystery. Whether this is being done merely for propaganda purposes, or whether the Americans are about to launch another suicide mission, I have no way of judging.

The fact is, however, that the Americans attacked Iran’s Kharg Island, which handles over 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Iran’s response was swift; Fujairah, one of the world’s largest oil terminals, located in the United Arab Emirates, was attacked. This is catastrophic, as Fujairah lies on the Gulf of Oman and thus outside the Persian Gulf. Tankers can load or refuel there without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This route is therefore also cut off.

With their attack on Kharg, the Americans seemed intent on further escalating the situation. They actually seem to believe that they can bring Iran to its knees this way. Having underestimated the Russians in Ukraine, they are now doing the same with the Iranians in the Middle East.

The Situation in the United Arab Emirates

I successfully left Dubai with my family. The Airbus 380 was full. On the day of our departure, our hotel was still only about 20% occupied. Most flights to Dubai are empty, but flights from Dubai are full. This is a disaster for this small country. It is estimated that Emirates Airline alone is losing approximately $100 million per day. The real estate market has plummeted by over 30% in a matter of days, and things could get even worse. An investigation by Dark Box has revealed that the United Arab Emirates is preparing a series of extraordinary measures targeting investors who wish to withdraw their capital from Dubai, amid growing concerns about the security and economic consequences of the Iranian attacks and regional instability. According to financial and legal sources cited by Dark Box, the proposed measures could include freezing bank accounts before funds are transferred, imposing travel bans on businesspeople attempting to move their assets abroad, and introducing additional administrative or legal penalties to prevent a rapid capital flight. The report indicates that authorities in Abu Dhabi and Dubai fear a potential exodus of investors that could undermine the cities’ economic model, which relies heavily on international capital flows, global logistics, and the perception of stability. As regional tensions disrupt trade routes and investor confidence, authorities appear determined to slow or prevent capital outflows to protect the domestic financial system. Analysts warn, however, that such measures could raise serious concerns among international investors regarding the predictability and openness of the Emirati business environment. Dark Box concludes that while the proposed measures aim to protect the economy during a time of geopolitical pressure, they could also signal a profound shift in Dubai’s reputation as a free-flowing global financial center.

If these measures were to be implemented, it would likely spell the end for the Emirates as a financial center.

Russia

Russia is benefiting unintentionally from this war; unintentionally, because Iran is an important strategic partner of Russia. Moscow has not commented on the extent of Russia’s support for Iran.

Speaking to NBC, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi commented on this issue as follows:

“Are you receiving any help from Russia?”

“Well, we have a strategy in partnership with Russia. […] Well, a military corporation between Iran and Russia is not something new. It's not it's not a secret. It has been in the past and still there and will continue in the future.”

“Is Russia helping you locate U.S. Forces?”

“Well, I don't have exact military information. As far as I know, we have a very good partnership with Russia.”

“So they are helping you.”

“They are providing intelligence. Well, they are helping us in many different directions. I don't have any detail information.”

This is about as clear a statement as a professional diplomat can make on these issues. The clear answer is “yes,” because the precision of Iranian missiles leaves no room for any other conclusion. Combined with the fact that American bases have virtually no air defense left due to a lack of ammunition, and that Israel is also no longer able to defend itself, this assistance could be decisive in determining the outcome of the war.

According to a study by CREA (Centre for Research and Clean Air), a Finnish institute, Russia’s revenue from the export of fossil fuels (coal, oil, liquefied natural gas, petroleum products, and pipeline gas) amounted to 492 million euros per day. These are huge sums. Assuming that energy prices may at least double as a result of the conflict, Russia will earn approximately 15 billion euros more—per month.

Apart from the economic benefits Russia will derive from this conflict, its geopolitical power will grow. Russia is the only major power that can credibly act as a mediator between the warring parties, because unlike the US, European countries, India, and Israel, Russia is reliable and enjoys a high level of trust.

Three Statements from Tehran

There are three statements that should give the West food for thought: No ceasefire, no fear of a ground invasion, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to Iran’s enemies and their allies and supporters. Another threat to the West is the possible closure of the Red Sea by the Houthis. Saudi Arabia has increased exports from its port of Yanbu on the Red Sea to 2.3 million barrels per day—50% more than the average—to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

The cheers of the Americans and Israelis, which the Western media interprets as victories, are irrelevant in light of the facts. The US and Israel started this war; Iran will end it—in my view, that is a mathematical certainty. Iran has been preparing for this conflict for over 40 years and possesses an arsenal of weapons sufficient to last a long time, certainly longer than the arsenals of the US and Israel—and that is all that matters. The 92 million Iranians are prepared to suffer and are not afraid. Even prolonged bombardments by enemy forces cannot bring this vast country—which is 67 times larger than Israel—to its knees. The Israelis and Americans are accustomed to waging short wars, “fighting” against civilians, and spreading terror. They are no match for a formidable adversary like Iran.

Conclusion and Implications

Financial Markets

As long as this war continues, it is entirely possible that energy prices around the world will skyrocket. The hope that this war would last only a few days or weeks was naive from the start. Although the financial markets have been nervous since the war began, people simply hoped that the war would be over—or would not happen at all—by the time the stock market opened on Monday. Iran’s resolve, however, will leave a significant mark on the energy markets. For over a year, I have been warning that the greatest geopolitical risk is a collapse of the financial markets. This risk has been exacerbated by this conflict, and the panic in the private-credit market can no longer be concealed. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are growing increasingly nervous in light of the mounting problems in the $3 trillion private credit market; this bubble amounts to $3,000 billion, and giants like BlackRock and Blackstone are already blocking investors from selling their shares through so-called “gates.” Deutsche Bank alone has invested over $30 billion in these markets. We will soon find out whether an exploding oil price will be the Black Swan.

Goals of Iran

Iran’s goal is to eliminate the threats to its existence. Israel and the US, which have been terrorizing the entire Middle East for nearly 80 years, must be neutralized to achieve this. What does that mean? Zionist Israel, which openly advocates annexing virtually the entire Middle East under the banner of “Greater Israel,” is incompatible with a peaceful Middle East. Israel is indeed attempting to incite Gulf states against Iran through false-flag attacks, but these states will not side with Israel. Many of these states are supposed to become part of Greater Israel, and thus I rule out Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey entering the war on Israel’s side—also because they are already weakened by the war, feel Iran’s power, and are opportunists.

The Middle East without Israel and the US

The West must come to terms with the idea that Israel, in its current form as a Zionist project, has no future. My sympathy for Israel is rather limited—the majority of the Jewish population supported the genocide in Gaza and also supports the insane war against Iran, which is heavily backed by nearly all Western media; see my article from last July, “Genocide as ‘Self-Defense’—Western Media as Accomplices in the Genocide in Gaza.”

It is already evident that the Americans will not be able to hold onto their bases in the Middle East. Iran is already attacking them with virtually no resistance. I expect that the US will have to evacuate all its bases in the Middle East. Sooner or later, the “host countries” will demand this of the US, because these bases have become a liability for the Gulf states and offer them no security whatsoever.

People who are content to simply consume Western media—or rather, propaganda—will be surprised by these conclusions and will not believe them. Never before have people in the Collective West been so poorly informed as they have been in recent years, and they will pay a heavy price. Sooner or later, they will realize that their politicians are traitors who in no way represent the interests of their own people, but rather the interests of criminals, for whom they sell their souls. My contempt for virtually all media in the West is almost boundless. Instead of holding the rulers in their countries in check through critical journalism, they act as their accomplices.